How will Russia's invasion of Ukraine affect South Africa?

On the 24th of February 2022, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, announced to the world that he would be conducting a "Special Military Operation" within what is known as the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. What ensued is widely accepted as a full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation with military strikes going well beyond the disputed regions and culminating in the wholesale destruction of major civilian areas such as Kharkiv and the national capital of Kyiv.

Western powers including NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) and the EU (European Union) have unilaterally condemned this move and have unified against Russian aggression within Europe, sending aid to Ukraine, strengthening military spending within their own nations, and enforcing heavy sanctions on the Russian economy. 

With South Africa's close ties to this former global superpower, how has the government been able to respond? How has it been received at home? And what is the ultimate effect of this devastating conflict on South Africans at large?

South Africa's response 

Officially, South Africa has made numerous yet vague comments about the cost of war and the toll it has on civilians but has not outright condemned the Russian government. This was most notably seen during a United Nations emergency assembly, where SA diplomats abstained from voting to condemn Russia.

The official reasoning was that South Africa enjoys a prosperous relationship with both nations. In a recent statement, President Cyril Ramaphosa subsequently said South Africa abstained "because the resolution did not foreground the call for meaningful engagement". In other words, the government considered the resolution as nothing more than a goodwill gesture to Ukraine. Not worth risking vital trade agreements. 

It should also be noted that after the ANC was banned by the Apartheid government, the Soviet Union (former USSR) remained one of its biggest contributors in terms of training and weapons for its military arm, uMkhonto we Sizwe.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) wasted no time in lambasting the ANC for its abstention, claiming that the decision was made because a Russian "oligarch" Victor Vekselberg donated R7.5 million to the ruling party. Although at first glance seems suspicious, it is incorrect to assume that all billionaires' views align with Putin's. 

Opposition views are hardly expressed to the Russian public without severe consequences from the state. This has been known since the jailing and sequestration of billionaire Mikhael Khodorkovsky in 2005. The notorious label of "oligarch" tends to be misleading. The implication is that these people exist within Russia's inner circle, secretly running things from behind the scenes. Whereas in reality, these billionaires possess their wealth by the sole grace of the Kremlin and Putin by extension.

Long Term and Economic effects 

While the invasion has caused certain turmoil and devastation for European trading, it is unlikely to have a direct or major impact on South African Markets. According to economists at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), South Africa's overall trade links to Russia are relatively limited. Merchandise exports for 2021 included an overall of just 0.4% of SA's imported goods.

However, since the cancellation of Nord Stream 2 (A 1200km coastal pipeline between St Petersburg and Lubmin) by German Chancellor Olaf Sholtz, European gas prices will sustain a large increase. This will inevitably affect the GDP of the region and indirectly impact our market capabilities in the long run.

On top of this, Brent crude oil reached an all-time high in excess of $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. This has resulted in a national petrol price increase of R1.47 last month and has had the most direct impact on South Africans due to factors arising from the conflict.

On a global scale, sustained inflation rates are likely to increase wholesale as a result of the escalating war in Ukraine.  

Russia's or Putin's war?

"Vladimir Putin has said on multiple occasions that the biggest catastrophe to befall the 20th century was the collapse of the Soviet Union. This might shed light on the future motivations and ambitions of Europe's Last Dictator." - Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State.

Putin's aggression toward Ukraine is nothing new. In 2014, he deployed his military into Crimea, successfully annexing the region with little resistance thanks to the majority of the region being ethnically Russian. At the time, the Ukrainian military was practically non-existent, making this move a clear victory for Putin. In the subsequent 8 years, Ukraine has been preparing for what they deemed as an inevitable full-scale invasion.

Putin's ire for NATO

NATO was founded in 1949 as a response to the Soviet Union's Warsaw Pact. After its collapse in 1989, NATO remained as a praetorian for the west should Russia seek to expand once more. Putin believes that NATO remains one of the biggest threats to Russian Sovereignty, claiming that its "eastward expansion" has cornered the Russian Federation. 

His stated reasoning for invading Ukraine was to protect the sovereignty of the disputed Donbas region and to, in his own words, "de-nazify the Ukrainian government" which he claims is genociding the people of this region. A claim that has been widely disputed.

For context, Putin does not see Ukraine as a separate entity but rather as a part of Russia. This harkens back to his younger days growing up and serving as a mid-level KGB bureaucrat in the Soviet Union.

A logistical nightmare

It is believed that Putin did not anticipate Ukrainian resistance to be as fierce as it has been. With comprehensive reports of Ukrainian armed personnel pushing back Russia's advances on key cities. Despite a multipronged attack, as of writing this, Russia has yet to take any strategic location other than the town of Kherson, (close to Odesa and linking the Donbas to Crimea) and has lost major ground in its offensive towards the capital, Kyiv. 

Despite this, The Kremlin refuses to make any concessions and is now refocusing its war efforts on taking and controlling the Donbas region specifically. In the port city of Mariupol, the war has claimed thousands of innocent lives with nearly 90% of the city reduced to ruin and rendered strategically unusable to Russian forces.

This presents an existential threat to the nation and the world at large bringing back discussions of nuclear catastrophe not heard since the Cold War. If Putin is backed into a corner, what will he do? After raising Russia's nuclear alert level to high, it is largely believed that Putin is becoming desperate.

The Fallout

It is uncertain what the outcome of this war will be. We know that Putin is not one to back down, that he needs to appear as though he is victorious to his public. We also know that NATO has strengthened its resolve, with more and more European nations deciding to join as a result. The fact of the matter is, that the west is more unified now than it has ever been before. And while Putin may wish to erase Ukrainian identity, all that he has managed to achieve so far is its promotion.

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